Markets don't move because everyone agrees.
They move because expectations change. Right now, expectations have shifted faster than the conversation around them has.
Two weeks ago, the odds of a rate hike at this week's Fed meeting sat in the low double digits, the kind of number nobody bothers taking seriously. This week, multiple futures markets put those odds somewhere between 30% and 40%, depending on the tracker. Ten days ago, this was basically off the table. Now it's a live possibility. That jump traces back to something simple: oil pushed above $100 a barrel as the conflict between the US and Iran escalated, and inflation was already sitting well above the Fed's target before you even factor in what pricier oil does to it next.